Gay Men Under 30 Are More Likely To Vote For Marine Le Pen Than Older Ones
Hornet, the premier gay social network questioned its French users on the presidential election. Hornet asked three questions to those who were sure to vote and who knew for whom.
To the first question: “Who do you think you will vote for in the second round?”, gay men who responded voted unsurprisingly much like all French citizens: 63.5% vote in favor of Emmanuel Macron and 36.5% for Marine Le Pen.
However, depending on the age of the respondents, responses are very mixed. Between 18 and 29 years old, the votes in favor of Marine Le Pen are much more significant. The candidate of the National Front exceeds 40% in this age group. It even reaches 49% of 25-year-old respondents. In our poll, under-30s account for almost half of the surveyed respondents. In this age group, Emmanuel Macron receives 56.5% of votes against 43.5% for Marine Le Pen.
From 30 to 49 years, the proportions change radically. In this age group, which represents 45% of the number of respondents, the vote in favor of Emmanuel Macron climbs to 67.8% against 32.2% for Marine Le Pen. This can be explained by the fact that in this age group, the respondents knew the Front National before Marine Le Pen took over in 2010 with her attempt to de-demonize the extreme right party. They may recall her father Jean-Marie Le Pen’s homophobic and serophobic remarks. For example, he explained in the 1980s that people living with HIV should be locked up.
This rejection of Marine Le Pen is even clearer after 50 years when it only receives 20% of the votes.
The second question concerns the votes in the first round of the presidential election. Emmanuel Macron came very far ahead with 40.25% of the votes of the 5093 people who answered this question. In our previous poll on Hornet, in February, the young candidate was credited with 38.1% of the vote.
Marine Le Pen is second with 21.46% of the vote, which corresponds to her score on the national level. The National Front candidate collected 19.2% in our February consultation. So it’s a little better for her today.
Just behind her, leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon (sort of Bernie Sanders) gets 21.17% of the vote. A spectacular comeback since in February, it collected only 13.2% of the votes of the respondents of the consultation on Hornet. Conversely, the candidate of the Socialist party collapses: Benoit Hamon collected only 6.36% of the votes of the respondents whereas it was credited of 18.5% in February.
François Fillon remains at the level observed in February and receives only 7.05% of the votes of the gays on Hornet. They probably make him pay his very conservative stands on LGBT issues as well as the influence of anti-equality movements during his campaign.
We also analyzed the deferral of votes among the five main candidates in the first round. Not surprisingly, voters of Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron in the first round vote almost exclusively for their candidate in the second round (with 99.18% and 97.12%, respectively). The voters of Benoit Hamon also report en masse on Emmanuel Macron, to 90.43%. But for the other two candidates, Mélenchon and Fillon, the results are more contrasted. Among the voters of Mélenchon, Le Pen collects nearly 30% of the votes (29.68%). As for the voters of Fillon, they vote for the majority for Le Pen, with 61% for the candidate of extreme right.
If elected this Sunday, Marine Le Pen will repeal the law on same sex marriage and adoption and will oppose the medically assisted procreation (PMA) and surrogate mothers (GPA). If elected, Emmanuel Macron will not change the law on marriage and adoption. He is opposed to the GPA but not to the PMA. He also stated he was ready to put in place a comprehensive plan to fight LGBTphobia, especially at school.
This online consultation was conducted by Hornet among its users between 27 and 28 April 2017. There were 5224 respondents to question 1 (“Who will you vote for in the second round?”), 5093 Question 2 (“Who did you vote for in the first round?”) And 5174 answers to question 3, which dealt with the age of the respondents. The full data can be viewed here.